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This is a Non-Federal dataset covered by different Terms of Use than Data.gov.

Projecting Violent Re-Offending in a Parole Population: Developing a Real-Time Forecasting Procedure to Inform Parole Decision-Making, Pennsylvania, 2012-2014

Metadata Updated: March 12, 2025

The University of Pennsylvania, in collaboration with the Pennsylvania Board of Probation and Parole (PBPP), began developing a violent forecast model utilizing the machine learning procedure random forest. By the spring of 2013, the forecasts were provided to decision makers prior to parole interviews. The violent forecast model (VFM) measures the extent to which offenders are likely to reoffend as indicated by future arrest. The VFM is a violence classification forecast and not an individual case prediction regarding offender behavior. Purpose The purpose of this research was to evaluate the impact of introducing forecasts of "future dangerousness" into PBPP's decision making process during parole interviews. The researcher anticipated that having available a sufficiently reliable forecast, particularly within the violent category, would reduce the likelihood of a parole release. The null hypothesis tested was that there would be no difference in parole release decisions when comparing two similar groups of offenders where during one group of parole interviews the decision maker had a forecast available and the other group of interviews there was not a forecast available.

Access & Use Information

Restricted: This dataset can only be accessed or used under certain conditions. Non-Federal: This dataset is covered by different Terms of Use than Data.gov. License: us-pd

Downloads & Resources

Dates

Metadata Created Date March 12, 2025
Metadata Updated Date March 12, 2025

Metadata Source

Harvested from DOJ JSON

Additional Metadata

Resource Type Dataset
Metadata Created Date March 12, 2025
Metadata Updated Date March 12, 2025
Publisher National Institute of Justice
Maintainer
Identifier 4237
Data First Published 2022-02-10T08:59:47
Language eng
Data Last Modified 2022-02-10T09:08:10
Rights These data are restricted due to the increased risk of violation of confidentiality of respondent and subject data.
Public Access Level restricted public
Aicategory Not AI-ready
Bureau Code 011:21
Metadata Context https://project-open-data.cio.gov/v1.1/schema/catalog.jsonld
Metadata Catalog ID https://www.justice.gov/data.json
Schema Version https://project-open-data.cio.gov/v1.1/schema
Catalog Describedby https://project-open-data.cio.gov/v1.1/schema/catalog.json
Harvest Object Id 1fd04684-9e7a-4007-a424-f84d45a012ab
Harvest Source Id 11827822-e56a-442a-9edb-6b249b7ddcc3
Harvest Source Title DOJ JSON
Internalcontactpoint {"@type": "vcard:Contact", "fn": "Jennifer Scherer", "hasEmail": "mailto:Jennifer.Scherer@usdoj.gov"}
Jcamsystem {"acronym": "OJP_EXT", "id": 8, "name": "External system not available in CSAM"}
License http://www.usa.gov/publicdomain/label/1.0/
Metadatamodified 9/2/2022 6:22:00 PM
Program Code 011:060
Publisher Hierarchy Office of Justice Programs > National Institute of Justice
Sourceidentifier https://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR36432
Source Datajson Identifier True
Source Hash c39519e423de60c057ee6fda1c3e2ca5f89a273490a79bda44b95e221bf14d2b
Source Schema Version 1.1

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